According to the World Bank’s “Migration and Development Brief 30” report, global remittance flows are expected to maintain their upturn during the upcoming couple of years albeit at a slower pace. In fact, the World Bank estimated a 10.2% hike in global remittance flows in the year 2018 to $689 billion, and anticipated said flows to expand by 3.8% in 2019 to $715 billion and by 4.5% in 2020 to $747 billion. The World Bank attributed its 2018 figures of global remittance flows to the solid economic activity and employment situation in the United States, together with the increase in outflows from Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region on the back of the recovery in international hydrocarbon prices. The report cited, however, a set of challenges that might cripple remittance flows across the globe over the coming period, of which it mentioned the downside risks to economic growth in some countries, the emergence of more stringent immigration policies in several remittance-sending nations, and the rising cost of sending remittances worldwide as structural barriers such as the swelling regulatory requirements imposed on money transfer operators arise. From another standpoint, the bulk (about 76.6%) of global remittance flows is likely to be channelled to low and middle income countries (LMICs) in the year 2018, as has been the case since at least the year 2010. In details, the World Bank foresaw that the majority of these flows will be directed to the East Asia & Pacific ($142 billion; <26.9%>) and South Asia ($132 billion; <25.0%>) regions. In this context, remittances to LMICs seem to follow a similar pattern to that of global remittances, soaring by 10.8% in 2018 to $528 billion, projected to accelerate by 4.0% in 2019 to $549 billion and by 4.4% in 2020 to $573 billion. On a regional basis, the World Bank estimated remittance flows to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to rally by 9.1% in 2018 to $59 billion and to later widen by 3.4% in 2019 to $61 billion and by 3.3% in 2020 to $63 billion. According to the report, this forecasted slowdown in the pace of growth can be justified by lower oil prices and moderating growth in GCC nations. Remittance flows to the MENA region should accordingly represent around 11.4% of remittance flows to developing countries and 8.6% of global remittance flows in 2018.

As far as Lebanon is concerned, the report estimated remittance flows to Lebanon to grow by 4% on an annual basis during the current year to $7.8 billion, positioning the country 2^nd in the MENA region in terms of size of remittance inflows, just behind Egypt ($25.7 billion). Concurrently, always according to World Bank estimates, Lebanon ranked 3^rd in the MENA region in terms of remittance contribution to GDP which stood at 14.5% in 2018, outpaced by Yemen (24.2% of GDP) and the West Bank & Gaza (21.3% of GDP). The World Bank also commented that the average cost of sending remittances to Lebanon from each of Australia, Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom remains the most expensive among corridors including regional recipients.