The Lebanese Central Bank released its “Business Survey” report pertaining to the third quarter of 2022 in which it assesses a set of macroeconomic indicators based on the opinions of corporate managers through a poll addressing the performance of their respective businesses. The assessment of each macroeconomic indicator relies on a balance of opinion, which consists of the difference between the proportion of managers estimating a certain improvement and those perceiving a contraction in the related variable. In details, the report unveiled that the balance of opinion with regards to “industrial production” improved to -1% in the third quarter of 2022, compared to -36% a quarter earlier and -44% in the third quarter of the preceding year. The report also showed some amelioration in the balance of opinion concerning “total demand” in the industrial sector to -1% in Q3-2022, from -34% a quarter earlier, with the gap in “foreign demand” narrowing to 0%, from –24% in the second quarter of 2022. The “volume of investments” balance fared better in Q3-2022, reaching -20% in comparison with -31% to Q2-2022.

On the commerce front, interviewed managers were more optimistic during the third quarter of 2022, with the business survey results showing a balance between managers whose perceptions are optimistic and those who estimated a slowdown in commerce activity. More specifically, the balance of opinion for “volume of sales” stood at 0% in Q3-2022, in comparison with -31% in the previous quarter. With respect to construction & public works, the negative balance of opinion of managers for “general activity”, “construction” and “public work” metrics narrowed substantially to 18%, 18% and 25% on a respective basis, from negative readings of 53%, 50% and 51% in the second quarter of 2022.

From a regional perspective, the balances of opinion of interviewed managers surrounding industrial activities showed mixed results in the Beirut & Mount-Lebanon and Bekaa regions, while they were entirely negative in the the South and were nearly at equilibrium in the North. Similarly, the balances of opinion surrounding commercial activities showed positive results in Beirut & Mount-Lebanon and the Bekaa region, while they were negative in the North and the South. As for construction & public works activities, the results were entirely negative in the Beirut & Mount-Lebanon, South, and Bekaa regions, while the poll for the North region showed mixed results when it comes to managers working in the construction & public works sector as outlined below: