According to the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, world economic growth is expected to drop from an estimated 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 before rebounding to 3.2% in 2027 and slowing to 3.1% by the year 2031. The 2026 figure was downwardly revised from January’s WEO update figure of 3.3% while that of the year 2027 remained unchanged. The report noted that over the past year, the global economy has been up against a slowdown from higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty that have been offset by robust technology-related investment and supportive financial conditions. The IMF commented that the global outlook has “darkened” following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026. More specifically, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the massive damage inflicted on critical production facilities in the Middle East region could result in an energy crisis on an immense scale. The report also commented that before the war, the IMF was leaning towards upgrading its global growth forecast due to the rising momentum of the global economy that was being boosted by a tech investment boom, moderation in trade policy, and supportive financial conditions. The IMF mentioned that the size of the shock to the global economy depends on the duration & scale of the conflict as well as the time needed for energy production & transit to normalize after the end of the hostilities. Always in the same vein, the IMF commented that the extent of the shock makes it very difficult to set the underlying assumptions of the projections, and accordingly the presented figures represent a “reference forecast” instead of the more “traditional baseline” based on the assumption that the war will have a limited duration, intensity, and scope such that the disruptions will end by mid-2026. The IMF estimated economic growth for advanced economies at 1.9% in 2025, projecting growth to attain 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027 (unchanged from the January 2026 WEO Update). More specifically, the IMF estimated growth for the United States to have reached 2.1% in 2025, projecting it to firm at 2.3% in 2026 before slowing to 2.1% in 2027, while it estimated a 1.4% GDP growth for the Euro Area in 2025, projecting the said growth to slow to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. On the other hand, the report estimated growth for emerging markets and developing economies to have attained 4.4% in 2025, projecting real growth to reach 3.9% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. In parallel, the report stated that global headline inflation is expected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 before slowing to 3.7% in 2027.

On the regional front, the WEO report estimated economic growth to have reached 3.6% in 2025 for the Middle East & Central Asia (MECA) region, projecting a growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027. Locally, the IMF estimated Lebanon’s economy to have expanded by 4.0% in 2025, following contractions of 7.5% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2023 and a growth rate of 1.0% in 2022. The IMF did not provide growth estimates for Lebanon beyond the year 2025 citing the “unusually high degree of uncertainty” surrounding the outlook of the Lebanese economy. The IMF also commented that Lebanon’s inflation decelerated to 14.6% in 2025, down from 45.2% in 2024, 221.3% in 2023, and 171.2%, 154.8%, and 84.9% in the years 2022, 2021, and 2020 on a respective basis. It also estimated the country’s current account deficit to GDP ratio to have contracted to 22.5% in 2025, compared to 19.0% in 2024, 24.0% in 2023, 28.9% in 2022, 22.2% in 2021 and 11.8% in 2020.