The Lebanese Central Bank released its “Business Survey” report pertaining to the third quarter of 2023 in which it assesses a set of macroeconomic indicators based on the opinions of corporate managers through a poll addressing the performance of their respective businesses. The assessment of each macroeconomic indicator relies on a balance of opinion, which consists of the difference between the proportion of managers estimating a certain improvement and those perceiving a contraction in the related variable. In details, the report unveiled that the balance of opinion with regards to “industrial production” improved quarter-on-quarter to 7% in the third quarter of 2023, up from 0% a quarter earlier and from -1% in the third quarter of the preceding year. The report also showed some amelioration in the balance of opinion concerning “total demand” in the industrial sector to 6% in Q3-2023, from -2% a quarter earlier, with the gap in “foreign demand” narrowing to -5%, from -6% in the second quarter of 2023. The “volume of investments” balance showed a slight improvement on a quarterly basis to -12%, compared to -16% in Q2-2023.

On the commerce front, however, the balance of opinion for “volume of sales” improved to 7% in Q3-2023, in comparison with -2% in the previous quarter. With respect to construction & public works, the negative balance of opinion of managers for “general activity” and “construction” metrics widened to 47%, 50% on a respective basis, from negative readings of 38% and 38% respectively in the second quarter of 2023, while the negative balance for the “public work” metric narrowed to 47% in Q3-2023 from 48% a quarter earlier.

Geographically, barring the South region (where the balance of opinion was negative across all economic sectors), most other regions showed a positive balance of opinion of interviewed managers in the industrial and commercial fields. Nevertheless, construction & public works remained negative across all regions.