The World Bank released on January 14, 2026 its “Global Economic Prospects – January 2026” report in which it estimated world economic growth to have dropped from around 2.8% in each of 2023 and 2024 to 2.7% in 2025, projecting growth to further slow to 2.6% in 2026 before rebounding to 2.7% in 2027. The World Bank commented that the global economy is proving to be resilient against the repetitive shocks it has been facing since the pandemic. In details, the World Bank revealed that despite policy uncertainty and tariff hikes to historically high levels, the 2.7% estimated global economic growth for the year 2025 remained unchanged when compared to the January 2025 edition of the report. In addition, the World Bank highlighted that world inflation rate is slowing and interest rates are dropping with investors demonstrating signs of “exuberance”. The report added that the recovery of the global economy from the recession that followed the global pandemic is the strongest in six decades with global GDP per capita in 2025 coming in 10% higher than the level recorded at the eve of the pandemic. However, global growth has clearly downshifted to a slower pace since the pandemic, with the current level of growth falling short of the level needed to reduce extreme poverty. Always in the same vein, the World Bank noted that in the event its projections materialize, the average growth rate for the current decade will be the slowest since the 1960s.

The report revealed that growth in advanced economies improved from circa 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% in each of 2024 and 2025, projecting growth to slow to 1.6% in each of 2026 and 2027. Concerning Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), the World Bank estimated growth to have slowed to 4.2% in 2025 compared to 4.4% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, while projecting growth to further decelerate to 4.0% in 2026 before inching upwards to 4.1% in 2027. The report commented that the projected dip in EMDEs real GDP growth in 2026 is mainly attributed to a slower growth in China (from an estimated 4.9% in 2025 to a forecasted 4.4% in 2026) where dreary confidence levels are outweighing the impact of the fiscal stimulus packages. Barring China, growth in EMDEs is expected to remain steady at 3.7% in 2026 and accelerate to 4.0% in 2027 propelled by a stronger demand, on the back of stronger investment and consumption levels, coupled by a recovery in trade and manufacturing.

On the regional front, the World Bank estimated economic growth in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region to have improved from 2.3% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, projecting growth to accelerate to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027. Delving further into details, the report mentioned that growth in oil-exporting MENA countries is expected to improve from an estimated 2.1% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025, projecting it to further grow to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. In details, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated oil producers (OPEC+) have ramped up oil production at a faster pace than what was declared at the onset of the year 2025. In addition, non-hydrocarbon growth in Gulf Cooperation Council countries especially in the sectors of manufacturing and services remained resilient and a major contributor of growth in these countries. As for oil-importing MENA countries, the report mentioned that the economy is expected to have decelerated from 2.8% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 before accelerating to an estimated 4.3% in 2025, with growth projected to attain 4.3% in 2026 before picking up to 4.5% in 2027, thanks to an overall improvement in activity.

On a local basis, the World Bank commented that Lebanon’s real GDP has contracted by 0.8% in 2023 and 7.1% in 2024. However, the World Bank estimated growth to have returned to positive grounds at 3.5% in 2025 mainly on the back of an improvement in the political climate. The World Bank projected growth to accelerate to 4.0% in 2026 assuming some progress is achieved in reform implementation. The 3.5% estimated growth for 2025 however, comes 1.2 percentage points lower than the 4.7% estimated growth in the June 2025 edition of the report. The World Bank noted that forecasts beyond the year 2026 for Lebanon were removed due to a high degree of uncertainty.