According to the World Bank’s “Migration and Development Brief 33: Phase II: COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens” report, the global economy’s remittance flows increased by 3.2% in 2019 to $717 billion yet are expected to contract by 7.0% to $666 billion in 2020 and by an additional 7.1% to $619 billion in 2021. Said drops can be attributed to the global economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic which could last for quite some time, noting that the number of infected individuals has exceeded 44 million in October and the number of fatalities has gone beyond the 1.1 million mark. Furthermore, the report commented that the re-emergence of COVID-19, coupled with lockdowns, travel bans & social distancing might be possible in 2021. From another standpoint, the report mentioned that despite the fact that economic activity and employment levels around the world have picked up after being brought to a standstill in early 2020, they are still far off the pre-crisis levels, citing in this respect an uncertain short-term outlook. In parallel, the World Bank reported that the number of international migrants was likely to drop in 2020 for the first time in recent history, citing in this regard the increasing return of migrants and the drop in new migrants. In detail, the report initially specified that the lockdowns and travel bans left migrant workers stuck and unable to return to their home countries. This trend however changed later-on, with returning migrants being reported all across the world. In addition, the report stated that migrants, particularly those in informal sectors & lower-skilled jobs, were disproportionately affected by the crisis, especially with regards to the loss of jobs & earnings, and exposure to & infection with COVID-19. From another standpoint, the report projected remittance flows to low and middle income countries (LMICs) to contract by 7.2% to $508 billion in 2020 and by an extra 7.5% in 2021. On this note, the report highlighted that these are the largest & steepest drops in recent history, stemming from feeble economic growth and weak oil prices, among others. In this vein, the report mentioned that the bulk (about 75.9%) of global remittance flows is likely to be channelled to LMICs in the year 2021, as has been the case since at least the year 2010. In details, the World Bank foresaw that the majority of these flows will be directed to the East Asia & Pacific ($126 billion; <26.81%>) and South Asia ($120 billion; <25.53%>) regions. On a regional basis, the World Bank estimated that remittance inflows to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region rose by 3.4% in 2019 to $60 billion, projecting these flows to drop by 8.5% in 2020 to $55 billion and by 7.7% in 2021 to $50 billion. The aforementioned drops in the MENA region can be explained by the continued global economic slowdown resulting from the coronavirus.

Locally, the report estimated remittance flows to Lebanon at $6.9 billion in 2020, positioning the country 2^nd in the MENA region in terms of size of remittance inflows, only behind Egypt ($24.4 billion). Concurrently, and always according to World Bank statistics, Lebanon ranked 1^st in the MENA region in terms of remittance contribution to GDP, which stood at 36.3% in 2020. Furthermore, the World Bank commented that the average cost of sending remittances to Lebanon from high-income OECD nations remains the double digits range.