According to the World Bank’s “Migration and Development Brief 37: Remittances Brave Global Headwinds” report, the global economy’s remittance flows are expected to increase by 2.6% in 2023 to $815 billion from $794 billion in 2022 and $781 billion (1.7% increase) in 2021. The report stated that remittance flows to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) registered an4.9% growth in 2022 to reach $626 billion, up from $597 billion in 2021. The World Bank commented that the primary reasons for the rise in remittance flows to LMICs in 2022 is driven by migrants’ desire to send money to support their families, the hike in oil prices, the economic recovery witnessed in several sectors post COVID, and the unexpected & strong appreciation of the Ruble against the U.S. Dollar which bolstered remittances from Russia to neighbouring countries. It added that remittances are a major source of external finance to LMICs in comparison to Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs), Official Development Assistance (ODA) and portfolio investments. The report also commented that excluding China, remittances have been the biggest source of external finance for LMICs since 2016 and have stood at around 3 times the size of ODA for more than a decade. Always in this regard, the report noted that all LMIC regions saw a rise in their remittance flows in 2022, and that except for the East Asia and Pacific region (projected 0.7% drop) all regions are anticipated to register an increase in remittance inflows in 2023. Accordingly, remittance flows in the LMIC region are expected to rise by 4.9% in 2023 to $639 billion. More specifically, the Europe and Central Asia region is anticipated to experience a 4.2% increase in remittance flows in 2023 to $75 billion yet the report pointed out that said projections are highly dependent on the developments of the war on Ukraine as any sudden drop in oil prices can have a detrimental impact on projections. In parallel, the Sub-Sahara Africa region is expected to witness a 3.9% increase in remittance flows in 2023 to $55 billion, with remittances to the Latin America and the Caribbean region projected to increase by 4.7% to $149 billion, remittances to South Asia expected to rise shyly by 0.7% to $164 billion, and those of East Asia & the Pacific inching downwards to $133 billion. On a regional basis, the World Bank estimated that remittance inflows to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region rose by 1.61% in 2022 to $63 billion, and projected these flows to further increase by 3.17% in 2023 to $65 billion.

Locally, the report estimated remittance flows to Lebanon at $6.8 billion in 2022 ($6.6 billion in 2021), positioning the country 3^rd in the MENA region in terms of the absolute size of remittance inflows, only trailing Egypt ($32.3 billion) and Morocco ($11.4 billion). Lebanon, however, ranked 1^st in the MENA region and second globally (trailing Tonga, 50% of GDP) in terms of remittance contribution to GDP, which stood at 37.8% in 2022 (53.8% in 2021), followed by the West Bank & Gaza (18.6% of GDP) and Jordan (9.7% of GDP). Furthermore, the World Bank commented that the average cost of sending remittances to Lebanon from high-income OECD nations remains elevated, with Lebanon appearing in two amongst the five most expensive corridors.