The World Bank recently released its Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) report on Lebanon where it gauged the reconstruction and recovery needs in Lebanon following the conflict at around $11 billion. The report assesses direct and indirect damages, economic losses, and recovery & reconstruction needs in ten sectors across the country between October 8, 2023 and up until December 20, 2024. According to the World Bank, the damages to physical assets are estimated at $6.8 billion, while economic losses caused by the conflict were estimated at $7.2 billion. The findings of the report revealed that the housing sector suffered the most physical damage, which was estimated at around $4.58 billion (~67.02% of the total), and was followed by the infrastructure sectors (~10% of the total). Similarly, the report unveiled that the commerce, industry & tourism sector suffered a major setback as a result of the conflict, with its economic losses estimated at $3.41 billion and representing ~47.60% of the total, and was trailed by the environment and debris management sector (~11.03% of the total). In addition, the World Bank commented that out of the total $11 billion in recovery & reconstruction needs, some $8.4 billion are estimated in the immediate (~$3.9 billion) and short term (~$4.5 billion), while the remaining $2.6 billion is estimated in the medium term. Furthermore, the report stated that the largest recovery & reconstruction needs are in the housing (~$6.25 billion; 57.09% of the total), commerce, industry, and tourism (~$1.85 billion; 16.88% of the total), and infrastructure sectors ($1 billion; 9% of the total). The breakdown of physical damages, economic losses, and recovery & reconstruction needs by sector is highlighted in the table below:

From a geographical perspective, the report pointed out that the Nabatieh governorate suffered the heaviest damages ($3.20 billion, 46.87% of total), largest economic losses ($1.98 billion, 27.58% of total), and emerging as the governorate which requires the highest recovery & reconstruction needs ($4.74 billion, 43.29% of the total), and was followed by the South (23.44%, 22.75%, and 22.45% of the respective totals), and Mount Lebanon (16.02%, 9.51%, and 16.22% respectively) governorates.

From another perspective, the RDNA report estimated real GDP to have contracted by 7.1% in 2024, compared to a no-conflict growth estimate of 0.9%. The report commented that real GDP fell by around 40% since the onset of the crisis in the year 2019. More specifically, the report mentioned that the recent conflict has worsened the already bleak situation in Lebanon, which was already suffering from a sovereign default, a depreciating local currency, a systemic banking crisis, limited capital investment, and worsening public services.

In parallel, the report revealed that the conflict has resulted in a sizeable displacement crisis, with the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) peaking in November 2024 at around 900,000 (circa 20% of the population). The report noted that the conflict has caused severe damages on civilian infrastructure (roads, homes, schools, and health facilities) thereby aggravating the challenges faced by displaced individuals to return to their villages. In addition, the World Bank stated that several villages near the southern border remain uninhabited amid ongoing insecurity and access limitations. Delving into further details, the report commented that more than 95% of IDPs who attempted to return to their areas of origins are currently residing in rental housing or with friends/relatives, noting that many families resorted to selling their assets to cope with the prolonged displacement. Finally, the World Bank mentioned that circa one-third of the population in Lebanon is facing acute food insecurity following the escalation of the conflict in 2024, with the healthcare system failing to meet the needs of the displaced individuals and thus leaving several without access to necessary medical care.