The World Bank, and in cooperation with the United Nations and the European Union, recently launched a report titled “Beirut Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment” to estimate the direct and indirect losses associated with the Beirut Port explosion which left more than 200 deaths, thousands of injuries and numerous homeless people. In details, the report highlighted that apart from the aforementioned human toll of the catastrophe, the economic toll was sizeable given the high population density in Beirut and its suburbs, the important economic activity in the affected areas and the vitality of the Beirut port to the Lebanese economy, routing c.68% of external trade over the 2011-2018 period. In figures, the report estimated the size of physical damages (calculated as the replacement value of damaged physical assets) at around $3.76 to $4.59 billion. Always in the same vein, the report indicated that the housing ($1.88-$2.29 billion) and culture ($1.01-$1.24 billion) sectors were the most affected in terms of physical damages, with the transport & port sector also incurring losses ranging between $280 million and $345 million. The World Bank report also estimated losses (calculated as the foregone flows to the economy as a result of the damaged assets) at around $2.87 to $3.51 billion, with the housing ($945-$1,155 million), transport & port ($580 to $710 million) and culture ($400 to 490 million) being the most hardly hit. The report also identified the most urgent recovery and reconstruction needs, and particularly those for the years 2020 ($605-$760 million) and 2021 ($1.18-$1.46 billion), estimating said needs at somewhere between $1.79 billion and $2.22 billion. In details, the transport & port sector was earmarked as the area with largest amount of needs ($425-$520 million), followed by the culture sector ($250-$310 million) and the housing sector ($220-$265 million).  

In addition, the World Bank conducted an assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the Beirut Port explosion. In details, the report estimated a 0.4 and 0.6 percentage point (pp) drop in the real GDP for the years 2020 and 2021 on a respective basis, due to the loss in the stock of physical capital, while adding that real GDP may incur an additional 0.4 pp (2020) and 1.3 pp (2021) drop on the back of import constraints. Said figures add woes to an already faltering economy, projected to contract by double digits (-18.6% in 2020 and -12.1% in 2021) on the back of the financial crisis coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report commented that the Beirut Port Explosion would lead to a loss of fiscal revenues and to a higher inflation rate, bearing in mind that Lebanon was already suffering from a triple-digit inflation rate prior to the catastrophe. Finally, the World Bank recommended that Lebanon must associate physical reconstruction with the strengthening of institutions, improving governance, and creating a more attractive business environment.