The World Bank released its Lebanon Macro Poverty Outlook (MPO) report in which it estimated Lebanon’s economy to have accelerated during the second half of 2025 as “high-frequency” indicators pointed to a more powerful momentum. In details, the MPO report revealed that cleared checks denominated in LBP and USD rose by circa 49.5% and 29.0% respectively in the second half of 2025 when compared to the first half of the year. In addition, the World Bank stated that construction permits and cement deliveries increased by 12.8% and 14.0% respectively in the second half of the year in comparison with H1-2025 figures, with passenger arrivals rising by 24.5% over the same studied period. Furthermore, the MPO report highlighted that cement deliveries and construction permits rose by 36.0% and 29.3% in the full year 2025 compared to year 2024 figures, while night-time lights increased by 30.0% y-o-y over the same period. On the fiscal front, the World Bank noted that Lebanon registered primary and overall surpluses of $1.87 billion and $1.55 billion in 2025 on a cash basis respectively as government revenues soared by 49% and expenditures increased by 27%. The majority of revenues was concentrated in indirect taxes & VAT (32.3% of total revenues) and customs receipts (7.1% of total revenues). The World Bank commented that the registered surpluses show better tax compliance, fiscal restraint, and lower interest expenses (that followed the March 2020 sovereign default). In a related note, the report stated that public debt remains unsustainable in 2025, standing at 155.2% of GDP, while commenting that said ratio has dropped due to higher nominal GDP. The World Bank noted that despite a moderate rise in consumer prices in the second half of 2025, inflation dropped to 14.6% in 2025. More specifically, the prices of education and rent registered the highest annual increases of 38.8% and 27.0% in 2025 on a respective basis with food & non-alcoholic beverages prices increasing by 20.4%. The World Bank commented that national inflation is still exceeded the global inflation level despite the stability of the exchange rate since August 2023. Regarding poverty, the MPO report revealed that it remained elevated among Lebanese nationals in 2025 yet has stabilized after peaking in 2024 as a result of conflict related disruptions and economic contractions. In the same vein, the World Bank revealed that microsimulations indicate that headcount poverty across five governorates has slightly dropped from 37% in 2024 to 36% in 2025. Furthermore, food insecurity has also dropped from a high of 24% in late 2024 to around 13% in early 2026 prior to the conflict. On the balance of trade front, the World Bank commented that trade deficit widened to $17.4 billion in 2025 (56.8% of GDP) as the 24.7% y-o-y rise in imports outweighed the 34.4% increase in exports. The report added that foreign direct investment in Lebanon rose by 7.3% y-o-y during the first nine months of 2025 to $1.5 billion yet remains insufficient to cover gross external financing needs. According to the report, the deficit was partially covered for by remittances, although official figures are understated, as informal channels are not captured. As far as the outlook is concerned, the World Bank expects the “fragile rebound” in economic activity to likely encounter severe stress, with risks heavily skewed to the downside. The report noted that the conflict and resulting flight disruptions across the MENA region are expected to curb tourism. In addition, the World Bank stated that massive internal displacement and elevated uncertainty are also expected to affect consumption and investment, while the impact of the conflict on human and physical capital is likely to be substantial. More specifically, the MPO report mentioned that energy imports constituted circa 29% of the total import bill in 2025. According to the World Bank, the continued reliance on oil for electricity generation and transportation will pressure the current account deficit as well as external financing needs on the back of rising oil prices. Furthermore, the World Bank highlighted that higher freight rates and oil prices will fuel inflationary pressure in the coming period, while the rising demand for emergency and reconstruction spending will undoubtedly strain the 2026 approved budget, which aimed for a balanced budget.