The World Bank released on June 11, 2026 its “Global Economic Prospects – June 2026” report in which it estimated world economic growth to have remained flat at around 2.9% in 2024 and 2025, projecting growth to slow to 2.5% in 2026 before accelerating to 2.8% in each of 2027 and 2028. According to the World Bank, the global economic outlook has changed significantly, as the Middle East conflict caused major disruptions in energy markets. The report commented that prior to the conflict, global activity appeared robust and was supported by a stronger than expected global trade amid a solid growth in Artificial Intelligence exports and a modest decline in tariff levels. The World Bank noted that the conflict in the Middle East has led nearly two-thirds of the world’s economies to face weaker growth prospects. The report added that the disruption of energy and commodity flows from the Gulf region has resulted in a massive increase in commodities prices, which are projected to rise by 22% in 2026 mainly on the back of shipping interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The World Bank commented that the 2026 forecasted world economic growth rate of 2.5% is the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic amid higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions, and weaker trade affecting activity. The World Bank added that economic activity is expected to ameliorate in 2027 and 2028 as energy supplies normalize, monetary easing resumes, and trade improves.

The report revealed that growth in advanced economies remained flat at 1.8% in each of 2024 and 2025, projecting growth to slow to 1.5% in 2026 before bouncing back up to 1.8% in 2027 and retreating to 1.7% in 2028. Concerning Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), the World Bank estimated growth to have remained constant at 4.4% in each of 2024 and 2025, projecting growth to decelerate to 3.6% in 2026 before recovering to 4.2% in 2027 and 4.1% in 2028. The report commented that the short-term deceleration in economic growth across EMDEs depends on their degree of exposure to the conflict as the growth in these affected economies fell from 3.9% in 2025 to close to 0% in 2026. Barring China, growth in EMDEs is expected to have dropped from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025 and is projected to reach 3.2% in 2026 before accelerating to 4.1% in each of 2027 and 2028.

On the regional front, the World Bank estimated economic growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) region to have improved from 2.9% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025, projecting said growth to slow to 1.6% in 2026 before recovering to 5.0% in 2027 and 4.0% in 2028. Delving further into details, the report mentioned that growth in hydrocarbon exporting MENAAP countries is expected to have improved from 2.9% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025, projecting it to slow to 0.7% in 2026 before accelerating to 5.5% in 2027 and easing to 3.9% in 2028. In details, the report noted that the limited ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz in addition to the destruction of energy-related infrastructure have largely disrupted oil and natural gas production at hydrocarbon exporting countries (including Iraq and GCC countries). As for hydrocarbon-importing MENAAP countries, the report mentioned that growth rose from an estimated 3.0% in 2024 to an estimated 3.9% in 2025, projecting growth to ease to 3.7% in 2026 and to improve to 3.9% in 2027 and 4.1% in 2028.

On a local basis, the World Bank commented that Lebanon’s real GDP has contracted by 5.2% in 2024. However, the World Bank estimated growth to have returned to positive grounds at 4.2% in 2025, which comes 0.7 percentage points higher than the 3.5% estimated growth in the January 2026 edition of the report. The World Bank noted that forecasts beyond the year 2025 for Lebanon were removed due to a high degree of uncertainty.