The World Bank recently released its MENAAP Economic Update – October 2025 report titled “Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth” in which it discussed the importance of increasing women’s labor force participation in the region to improve the standards of living. The report commented that the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) region is currently facing a critical moment amid volatile global economic conditions, persistent regional uncertainty, fragility, and deep demographic transformation. According to the World Bank, the growth outlook for the majority of MENAAP economies has been upwardly revised since the April 2025 edition of the report yet remains “cautiously optimistic”, with the average GDP growth rate expected to attain 2.8% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, up from an estimated 2.3% in 2024. Concerning the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the report revealed that economic activity is expected to improve as well from 2.2% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026 due to the rapid phasing out of OPEC+ production cuts, as well as the solid expansion in non-oil sectors. Regarding the developing oil exporting countries of the MENAAP region however, the report noted that the growth prospect is more subdued and is expected to drop from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026 amid conflict disruptions and oil production adjustments. As for developing oil importing countries within the region, the report highlighted that growth is forecasted to grow from 2.2% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025 owing to increasing private consumption & investment activity, a rebound in agriculture & tourism, and macroeconomic reforms & external assistance, yet commented that some economies continue to suffer from the aftermath of natural disasters and the limited access to international finance, thereby underscoring the region’s vulnerability to shocks. The report noted that despite the fact that growth prospects for the region has improved to become in line with global trends and has shown a more solid performance among major trading partners, the MENAAP region continues to struggle with the impact of conflicts, rising poverty, and large-scale displacement of people. The report commented however, that changes in oil prices could result in larger growth forecasts, especially among oil exporters, which account to circa 70% of the region’s GDP. In addition, the report pointed out that the region stands at the center of the global jobs challenge as the growth in the working-age population has surpassed job creation, with the working-age population expected to grow by around 220 million over the next 25 years (~40% rise). Furthermore, the report stated that the rapidly aging population within the MENAAP region will soon affect GDP growth, fiscal balances, and social protection systems, with MENAAP countries having one way to “bend” said trajectory: to expand the labor force participation among women. More particularly, the report revealed that despite decades of investment in education whereby the number of women that enroll in and graduate from schools has become similar to or even higher than men in MENAAP countries, the average rate of labor force participation in the region remains one of the lowest in the world. The report added that across MENAAP countries, one in five working-age women partake in the labor market regardless of the country’s income level. The World Bank noted that low female participation indicates a set of “mutually reinforcing constraints”. Delving into details, the report mentioned that factors such as restrictive social norms and unequal laws reduce women’s willingness and ability to work, while social norms remain more traditional compared to global peers. In a related context, the report highlighted that several MENAAP countries do not have legal provisions for equal pay, flexible work, safe mobility, and protection from harassment, with women in such countries being unable to obtain jobs with the same terms as men in many instances. The report added that the public sector’s “magnetic pull” attracts high-skilled women away from entrepreneurship and private sector careers. The report stated that together, the aforementioned forces lead to large gender gaps in labor force entry, higher unemployment among female jobseekers, concentration of employed women in the public sector, as well as sizeable wage penalties. In this respect, the report commented that partial fixes are not enough and that a policy approach that tackles all fronts (with the private sector acting as the main driver behind job creation) is the most likely solution to succeed. In details, the report stated that the policy agenda should take into consideration the region’s prevailing social norms and make sure to correct any misconceptions surrounding community support for women work (which could increase aspirations among both men and women) as well as reduce backlash and sustain change (the participation of female role models in non-traditional jobs and interventions to normalize the economic role of women). Accordingly, the report added that countries that have such binding norms might find remote work or digital platforms as ways to achieve short-term progress, while longer-term progress could be achieved by investing in efforts toward fundamental changes. From another standpoint, the report noted that legal reforms and credible enforcement are essential for a proper policy agenda by enacting and applying rules that ensure equal pay for work of equal value as well as clear anti-discrimination and anti-harassment decrees, protections surrounding recruitment, promotions, and dismissal, in addition to eliminating “outdated” gender-based restrictions on permissible occupations, working hours, and mobility while allowing flexible work. Furthermore, the report mentioned that expanding safe transport and affordable childcare are essential for any policy agenda. The report added that investments that improve the safety, reliability, and reach of public transport could increase both job opportunities for women and their retention. The report also noted that “leveling the playing field” between public and private sector firms could raise competitive pressures and accordingly increase the cost of “discriminatory hiring”. The World Bank revealed that the MENAAP region could not afford to underutilize female talent since increasing women’s labor force participation is crucial for growth and resilience against the nearing demographic change.

As far as Lebanon is concerned, the World Bank report commented that the country continues to encounter harsh fiscal and service delivery constraints during a protracted economic crisis. The report added that the recent conflict in Lebanon aggravated humanitarian and economic problems resulting in the displacement of circa 1.2 million individuals and several casualties. By end of 2024, the World Bank had estimated physical damages resulting from the conflict at $6.8 billion, economic losses at $7.2 billion, and the recovery & reconstruction needs at $11 billion. The report commented in this regard that despite these pressures, Lebanon managed to complete strides in political progress namely ending a two-year paralysis with the election of a new President and the formation of a new government in early 2025. In addition, reforms progress and revamped tourist activity in July and August 2025 have also supported growth, with said momentum expected to continue in 2026. The report noted that real GDP growth in Lebanon is expected to attain 3.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, compared to a contraction of 7.1% in 2024. Furthermore, the report commented that annual inflation fell to 14% in July 2025 amid the sustained exchange rate stability since August 2023, with expectations of a drop to below 10% in 2026 (bearing in mind that food inflation remains higher at 22% year-on-year). Growth in real GDP per capita is also expected to improve to 2.7% in 2025 (from -7.6% in 2024) and to 3.1% in 2026. The World Bank also projected Lebanon’s current account deficit to remain in double-digit territory at 15.8% of GDP in 2025 and 16.1% of GDP in 2026 (compared to 22.2% in 2024). The World Bank’s forecast adopted the government’s balanced budgets for 2025 and 2026 (i.e. 0% of GDP) compared to a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2024. As for poverty rates, the World Bank highlighted that the percentage of population in Lebanon living below poverty lines has been on the rise, with the percentage of population earning less than $3.0 per day increasing from 0.1% in 2013 to 5.9% in 2023, those earning below $4.2 per day concurrently increasing from 0.3% to 16.0%, and the labor force earning below $8.3 per day rising from 5.5% to 50.7% over the same studied period. From another standpoint, the report also provided some of the main barriers to female labor force participation for the 2023-2024 period for six Arab countries. In the case of Lebanon, the largest barriers for women enrollment in the labor force are the lack of available jobs, low wages, and lack of childcare options, only to name a few.